Weekly Review
Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 20 Mar 2026
The Fed's hawkish hold detonated precious metals, the desk's crude oil pivot landed again, and eight NO CALLs watched the world burn.
Latest
Market Of The Week: ★Crude Oil (CL)★ Geopolitical premium mean reversion as Iran conflict extends into week three…
Crude Oil (CL): Market may be overextended on geopolitical premium at $98+ WTI with extreme speculative positioning (351,032 net-long highest since 2020) creating asymmetric downside as producers aggressively hedge at $100+ signaling their bearish forward view; consensus focused on supply disruption
Core
S&P 500 (ES) — breaking down in high regime
Divided between extreme fear capitulation suggesting oversold bounce and technical breakdown continuation, majority positioning defensively into March 18-19 FOMC with elevated hedging despite contrarian sentiment signals
Core
Gold (GC) — Gold testing critical $5000 psychological support following two consecutive…
Mixed to cautiously bullish medium-term with institutional targets clustering at $5,000-5,400 but near-term uncertainty elevated ahead of March 18-19 FOMC decision and consolidation at $5,000 support creating binary breakout/breakdown setup
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — Market may be underweighting the extreme nature of sentiment capitulation (AAII…
Cautiously defensive awaiting March 18 FOMC clarity with extreme bearish sentiment acknowledged but technical deterioration and elevated volatility preventing aggressive positioning either direction
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — Imminent dual central bank catalyst cluster (FOMC March 17-18, ECB March 18-19)…
EUR/USD consolidation in 1.14-1.17 range through dual central bank meetings with cautious neutral bias awaiting Fed and ECB policy guidance
Extended
Silver (SI) — Federal Reserve FOMC meeting conclusion and Chair Powell press conference at…
Mixed with near-term bearish technical bias—CoinCodex algorithm predicts -7.96% decline to $74.20 by March 21, analysts targeting $75-85 consolidation near-term with longer-term forecasts extending to $90-150 by mid-2026 if supply deficit persists, though FOMC outcome creates wide forecast dispersio
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — -1.2 between 1.32 support and 1.335 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Mildly bearish consolidation expected with defensive positioning ahead of March 19 BoE meeting as markets price 90% probability of 25bp rate cut to 3.5% following January inflation decline to 3.0%
Extended
Copper (HG) — Conflicting cross-currents between China Caixin PMI surge to 52.1 (5-year high…
Copper consolidating from record highs with elevated prices expected into 2026 but near-term volatility likely as market balances supply deficit fundamentals against China demand uncertainty and risk-off sentiment
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — Policy stalemate ahead of March 18 FOMC with Fed-BoJ differential unchanged at…
USD/JPY consolidation with slight bearish yen bias on persistent rate differentials; market expecting range-bound behavior ahead of FOMC
Extended
Russell 2000 (RTY) — -0.5 between 2450 support and 2520 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Small-caps under pressure from risk-off dynamics and Fed uncertainty but retaining fundamental appeal from earnings growth once volatility settles
Full Desk
Wheat (ZW) — consolidating in high regime
Cautiously neutral to bearish following March WASDE confirmation of ample supplies with rally viewed as short-covering event within structural bear market - consensus expects mean reversion toward 575-590 once weather premium fully dissipates