Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 17 Jul 2026
Wheat erupts 8.35% in a dust cloud of vindication, crude oil stages a 14% ambush, and the Nasdaq drops 4.4% while the desk polishes its NO CALL plaque.
Latest
GBP/USD Key Levels This Week — Support, Resistance & Confluence Zones
GBP/USD key levels breakdown: support zones, resistance zones, confluence and price structure.
30-Year Treasury Forecast This Week — Outlook, Drivers & Key Levels
This week's 30-Year Treasury outlook: key drivers, volatility context, risk-opportunity assessment and the week ahead.
Wheat COT & Institutional Positioning — Smart Money Analysis
Wheat institutional positioning: COT data, sentiment analysis and smart money flow assessment.
Nasdaq 100 Key Levels This Week — Support, Resistance & Confluence Zones
Nasdaq 100 key levels breakdown: support zones, resistance zones, confluence and price structure.
AUD/USD Key Levels This Week — Support, Resistance & Confluence Zones
AUD/USD key levels breakdown: support zones, resistance zones, confluence and price structure.
GBP/USD COT & Institutional Positioning — Smart Money Analysis
GBP/USD institutional positioning: COT data, sentiment analysis and smart money flow assessment.
S&P 500 Key Levels This Week — Support, Resistance & Confluence Zones
S&P 500 key levels breakdown: support zones, resistance zones, confluence and price structure.
Soybeans COT & Institutional Positioning — Smart Money Analysis
Soybeans institutional positioning: COT data, sentiment analysis and smart money flow assessment.
Silver COT & Institutional Positioning — Smart Money Analysis
Silver institutional positioning: COT data, sentiment analysis and smart money flow assessment.
Gold Key Levels This Week — Support, Resistance & Confluence Zones
Gold key levels breakdown: support zones, resistance zones, confluence and price structure.
Crude Oil Key Levels This Week — Support, Resistance & Confluence Zones
Crude Oil key levels breakdown: support zones, resistance zones, confluence and price structure.
Full Desk
AUD/USD (6A) — FOMC July 28-29 Meeting - critical binary catalyst with Fed currently at…
Market consensus correctly prices consolidation in low-information environment with no fresh catalysts, AUD at 0.6957 reflects balanced two-way risk ahead of July 28-29 FOMC decision
Full Desk
Soybeans (ZS) — 0.65 between 1172 support and 1200 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Mixed with fundamental bulls citing July 10 WASDE tightening stocks-to-use and weather risks during critical pollination offset by positioning analysts noting extreme speculative short buildup and export analysts highlighting Brazilian pricing advantages creating range-bound consolidation expectatio
Full Desk
30-Year Treasury (ZB) — Post-input development identified: June CPI released July 11 (yesterday) showed…
Market pricing Fed on hold at July 28-29 FOMC with 78% probability maintaining 3.50-3.75% range per Polymarket; bonds consolidating 110-114 awaiting July 14 CPI clarity on whether yesterday's June 4.0% spike represents persistent trend or transitory outlier with Warsh's June 17 hawkish pivot widely
Full Desk
Platinum (PL) — Technical breakdown accelerating with price testing critical $1,540 support…
Market violently rejecting WPIC May 18 Q1 2026 report bullish full-year deficit upgrade with -21% decline since announcement, prioritizing Q1 surplus evidence (268 koz first in six quarters from 18% YoY supply growth) over full-year deficit forecast suggesting either forecasting credibility concerns
Weekly Review
Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 10 Jul 2026
Copper quietly delivers, wheat explodes while nobody's watching, and crude oil reminds the desk that the war premium has a pulse.
Market Of The Week: ★Copper (HG)★ Market may be overweighting June consolidation duration and China PMI weakness…
Copper (HG): Market may be overweighting June consolidation duration and China PMI weakness at 50.3 as demand destruction signals while underweighting that high-tech equipment PMI at 53.5 (significantly outpacing broader manufacturing) represents AI/data center demand validation not yet fully priced
Core
S&P 500 (ES) — Q2 2026 earnings season begins THIS WEEK (July 7-11) with major financials…
Cautiously bullish on Q2 earnings strength and technical momentum above key moving averages, but increasingly aware extreme put/call 0.53 complacency at 7,557 consolidation creates asymmetric downside risk into July 7-11 earnings catalyst with 7,600 resistance remaining formidable
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — Miss reset requirement triggered after 5 consecutive MISSED calls (July 3, June…
Cautiously positioned ahead of Q2 earnings season beginning July 8-11, acknowledging technical consolidation and June hawkish Fed repricing while maintaining constructive view on AI capex validation and structural growth, but defensive given elevated valuations requiring flawless execution
Core
Crude Oil (CL) — Market may be underweighting China June import collapse magnitude (6 mb/d…
Tactically uncertain with market having completed mean reversion as current $68.86 WTI at/below most analyst fair value estimates and pre-crisis February levels; structural oversupply consensus (IEA +1.1 mb/d demand growth only, China 6 mb/d import collapse) validates bearish fundamental picture yet
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — Desk NO CALL stance fully aligns with market noise threshold reality and 18-day…
EUR consolidation in 1.13-1.21 range through July 23 ECB meeting with neutral bias—markets efficiently pricing ~65% July hike probability but 18-day catalyst vacuum creates range-bound conditions, year-end consensus targets 1.20-1.25 dependent on rate differential repricing
Core
Gold (GC) — Resetting after 9 consecutive misses per Rule 5 — thesis under mandatory review
Mixed with institutional year-end targets ranging from $4,900 (Goldman Sachs revised from $5,400) to $6,300 (JPMorgan) maintaining structural bull case but near-term positioning increasingly defensive following 26% correction from January peaks and widespread acknowledgment that higher-for-longer Fe
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — Bank of England July 2026 MPC meeting following June 18 hold at 3.75% on 7-2…
Neutral consolidation expected with defensive positioning as markets digest dual central bank outcomes from June 17-18 with BoE holding 3.75% and increased hawkish dissent (7-2 vote), fresh June 30 current account deficit widening to 2.4% GDP creates bearish undertone but market awaits July 30 BoE m