Cautiously shifting from bearish to neutral-tactical bullish as March 1 Iran strike catalyst forces reassessment of geopolitical risk premium dismissal pattern
Core
EUR consolidation in 1.17-1.19 range through March with cautious neutral bias - 85% of economists expect ECB unchanged through 2026 while Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%
Core
Cautiously neutral awaiting March 17-18 FOMC catalyst with 10-week consolidation pattern reflecting institutional indecision between seasonal optimism and Fed hawkish reality
Core
Cautiously constructive on March seasonality providing recovery catalyst from February weakness but vigilant for continued AI spending ROI scrutiny and Fed policy trajectory uncertainty
Core
Bullish medium-term with structural central bank support intact and Fed maintaining accommodative bias creating constructive backdrop for continuation toward $5500-5626 despite January profit-taking consolidation
Extended
Neutral to mildly bearish consolidation expected with defensive positioning ahead of March 19 BoE meeting as declining UK inflation to 3.0% supports easing expectations but 17-month persistence above target creates uncertainty
Extended
USD/JPY consolidation with slight bearish JPY bias on persistent rate differentials; Takaichi election victory seen constraining BOJ normalization through political pressure
Extended
Copper rallied to record highs on supply concerns with elevated prices expected into 2026 but near-term consolidation likely as market digests extraordinary gains, China Q4 demand declining 8% YoY, and seven-week range-bound action above $6.00
Extended
Most analysts targeting $85-100 consolidation near-term with longer-term forecasts extending to $100-150 by mid-2026 if supply deficit and China restrictions persist though CME intervention creates uncertainty and regulatory overhang
Extended
Small-caps positioned to extend outperformance following historic January breakout with superior 18-22% earnings growth and Fed easing supporting continued rotation despite near-term seasonal consolidation
Full Desk
Treasury bonds experiencing technical relief rally after December panic exhaustion but fundamentals remain challenged with Fed terminal rate near 3% and sticky inflation limiting sustained duration rally potential
Full Desk
Shifting from bearish expecting RBA cuts toward cautiously bullish recognizing inflation-driven hawkish floor creates support but acknowledging 10% rally extension and China concerns tempering aggressive conviction