Core
EUR/USD (6E) — consolidating in low regime
EUR consolidation in 1.16-1.18 range through March 19 ECB meeting with cautious neutral bias - 85% of economists expect ECB unchanged at 2.00% while Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%
Core
Crude Oil (CL) — breaking out in extreme regime
Rapidly shifting from bearish structural oversupply to tactically bullish geopolitical premium as March 1-8 Iran war forces repricing; sell-side beginning to acknowledge $100+ possible if Strait remains compromised but maintaining medium-term bearish on oversupply
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — Continuation of February AI spending concerns ($600-655B 2026 capex) combined…
Cautiously defensive given tariff uncertainty and February AI volatility hangover but acknowledging March seasonal tailwinds and volatility normalization could provide recovery catalyst if external pressures stabilize
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — Market consensus at 90% probability of March 19 rate cut appears well-priced…
Mildly bearish consolidation expected with defensive positioning ahead of March 19 BoE meeting as markets price 90% probability of 25bp rate cut to 3.5% following February inflation decline to 3.0%
Extended
Russell 2000 (RTY) — Bias review triggered after 4 consecutive BULLISH weeks with 2 consecutive…
Small-caps under pressure from geopolitical shocks and Fed uncertainty but retaining structural appeal from valuation discount and earnings growth outlook once volatility settles
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — consolidating in high regime
USD/JPY consolidation with slight bearish JPY bias on persistent rate differentials; Takaichi election victory seen constraining BoJ normalization through political pressure
Extended
Silver (SI) — 0.5 between 80 support and 90 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Most analysts targeting $80-95 consolidation near-term with longer-term forecasts extending to $100-150 by mid-2026 if supply deficit persists, though extreme volatility and Fed policy uncertainty create wide forecast dispersion
Extended
Copper (HG) — consolidating in normal regime
Copper rallied to record highs on supply concerns with elevated prices expected into 2026 but near-term consolidation likely as market digests extraordinary gains, rising LME inventories, China Q4 demand declining 8% YoY, and tariff policy uncertainty
Market Of The Week: ★Crude Oil (CL)★ EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report following Iran strike escalation and market…
Cautiously shifting from bearish to neutral-tactical bullish as March 1 Iran strike catalyst forces reassessment of geopolitical risk premium dismissal pattern
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — ECB Governing Council Rate Decision and Lagarde Press Conference - first major…
EUR consolidation in 1.17-1.19 range through March with cautious neutral bias - 85% of economists expect ECB unchanged through 2026 while Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%
Core
S&P 500 (ES) — -0.8 between 6800 support and 6950 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Cautiously neutral awaiting March 17-18 FOMC catalyst with 10-week consolidation pattern reflecting institutional indecision between seasonal optimism and Fed hawkish reality
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — consolidating in high regime
Cautiously constructive on March seasonality providing recovery catalyst from February weakness but vigilant for continued AI spending ROI scrutiny and Fed policy trajectory uncertainty