Extended
Most analysts targeting $80-95 consolidation near-term with longer-term forecasts extending to $100-150 by mid-2026 if supply deficit persists, though extreme volatility and Fed policy uncertainty create wide forecast dispersion
Extended
Copper rallied to record highs on supply concerns with elevated prices expected into 2026 but near-term consolidation likely as market digests extraordinary gains, rising LME inventories, China Q4 demand declining 8% YoY, and tariff policy uncertainty
Full Desk
Treasury bonds experiencing failed rally breakdown with February advance exhausted structural bearish backdrop from Fed terminal rate near 3% remains intact bonds likely range 114-119 awaiting March FOMC clarity
Full Desk
Neutral to cautiously bullish on South American weather concerns providing support but Supreme Court legal uncertainty and elevated US-Brazil spreads creating range-bound consolidation between 1000-1080
Full Desk
Cautiously bullish on February-March rally from extreme October oversold levels with Arctic blast and early dormancy break providing genuine supply catalyst yet increasingly skeptical about sustainability above 620 given structural oversupply fundamentals expecting mean reversion once March WASDE cl
Full Desk
Market consensus has shifted from November bearish expecting RBA cuts toward cautiously constructive recognizing February hike but not yet pricing high probability of March follow-through despite Governor Bullock March 3 warning
Full Desk
Market digesting WPIC March 4 revised 2026 deficit forecast (240 koz shortage versus prior 20 koz surplus projection) with initial price weakness suggesting profit-taking overwhelming fundamental bullishness
Weekly Review
Iran blew a hole in the Middle East and an even bigger one in the desk's metals thesis. Seven from fifteen, and crude oil just wrote the trade of the year.
Cautiously shifting from bearish to neutral-tactical bullish as March 1 Iran strike catalyst forces reassessment of geopolitical risk premium dismissal pattern
Core
EUR consolidation in 1.17-1.19 range through March with cautious neutral bias - 85% of economists expect ECB unchanged through 2026 while Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%
Core
Cautiously neutral awaiting March 17-18 FOMC catalyst with 10-week consolidation pattern reflecting institutional indecision between seasonal optimism and Fed hawkish reality
Core
Cautiously constructive on March seasonality providing recovery catalyst from February weakness but vigilant for continued AI spending ROI scrutiny and Fed policy trajectory uncertainty