30-Year Treasury COT & Institutional Positioning — Smart Money Analysis
30-Year Treasury institutional positioning: COT data, sentiment analysis and smart money flow assessment.
Latest
Copper Forecast This Week — Outlook, Drivers & Key Levels
This week's Copper outlook: key drivers, volatility context, risk-opportunity assessment and the week ahead.
EUR/USD Forecast This Week — Outlook, Drivers & Key Levels
This week's EUR/USD outlook: key drivers, volatility context, risk-opportunity assessment and the week ahead.
Gold Forecast This Week — Outlook, Drivers & Key Levels
This week's Gold outlook: key drivers, volatility context, risk-opportunity assessment and the week ahead.
Wheat Key Levels This Week — Support, Resistance & Confluence Zones
Wheat key levels breakdown: support zones, resistance zones, confluence and price structure.
EUR/USD COT & Institutional Positioning — Smart Money Analysis
EUR/USD institutional positioning: COT data, sentiment analysis and smart money flow assessment.
Wheat COT & Institutional Positioning — Smart Money Analysis
Wheat institutional positioning: COT data, sentiment analysis and smart money flow assessment.
USD/JPY Key Levels This Week — Support, Resistance & Confluence Zones
USD/JPY key levels breakdown: support zones, resistance zones, confluence and price structure.
AUD/USD Forecast This Week — Outlook, Drivers & Key Levels
This week's AUD/USD outlook: key drivers, volatility context, risk-opportunity assessment and the week ahead.
USD/JPY COT & Institutional Positioning — Smart Money Analysis
USD/JPY institutional positioning: COT data, sentiment analysis and smart money flow assessment.
AUD/USD Key Levels This Week — Support, Resistance & Confluence Zones
AUD/USD key levels breakdown: support zones, resistance zones, confluence and price structure.
AUD/USD COT & Institutional Positioning — Smart Money Analysis
AUD/USD institutional positioning: COT data, sentiment analysis and smart money flow assessment.
Full Desk
30-Year Treasury (ZB) — FOMC policy decision March 18-19 at 2:00 PM with Powell press conference at…
Market pricing 92% hold at March 18-19 FOMC with only one cut expected for all of 2026; bonds consolidating 112-118 range awaiting FOMC clarity on terminal rate trajectory
Full Desk
Soybeans (ZS) — Fundamental divergence from technical structure as March WASDE report shows…
Mixed with technical bulls focused on momentum and spec fund positioning while fundamental bears cite WASDE supply increases and Brazilian pricing advantages
Full Desk
AUD/USD (6A) — Market appears to be under-appreciating binary volatility risk around March 17…
Market consensus rapidly shifted from bearish expecting RBA cuts to constructive bullish recognizing inflation-driven hawkish floor with 78% probability now pricing March 17 hike but positioning suggests uncertainty remains
Weekly Review
Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 14 Mar 2026
Ten from fifteen, the S&P bearish call lands, and the Iran war turns crude into a one-way street while wheat gets winterkilled by reality.
Market Of The Week: ★S&P 500 (ES)★ February CPI release critical for Fed policy trajectory assessment amid dual…
S&P 500 (ES): Market underestimating duration of Iran conflict resolution required and stagflation policy paralysis while overestimating March seasonal pattern reliability given VIX 29.48 panic phase entry and 6791 technical breakdown confirming distribution not accumulation
Core
Gold (GC) — consolidating in high regime
Bullish medium-term with structural central bank support intact and Fed maintaining accommodative bias creating constructive backdrop for continuation toward $5300-5500 despite January profit-taking consolidation
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — consolidating in low regime
EUR consolidation in 1.16-1.18 range through March 19 ECB meeting with cautious neutral bias - 85% of economists expect ECB unchanged at 2.00% while Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%
Core
Crude Oil (CL) — breaking out in extreme regime
Rapidly shifting from bearish structural oversupply to tactically bullish geopolitical premium as March 1-8 Iran war forces repricing; sell-side beginning to acknowledge $100+ possible if Strait remains compromised but maintaining medium-term bearish on oversupply
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — Continuation of February AI spending concerns ($600-655B 2026 capex) combined…
Cautiously defensive given tariff uncertainty and February AI volatility hangover but acknowledging March seasonal tailwinds and volatility normalization could provide recovery catalyst if external pressures stabilize
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — Market consensus at 90% probability of March 19 rate cut appears well-priced…
Mildly bearish consolidation expected with defensive positioning ahead of March 19 BoE meeting as markets price 90% probability of 25bp rate cut to 3.5% following February inflation decline to 3.0%
Extended
Russell 2000 (RTY) — Bias review triggered after 4 consecutive BULLISH weeks with 2 consecutive…
Small-caps under pressure from geopolitical shocks and Fed uncertainty but retaining structural appeal from valuation discount and earnings growth outlook once volatility settles
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — consolidating in high regime
USD/JPY consolidation with slight bearish JPY bias on persistent rate differentials; Takaichi election victory seen constraining BoJ normalization through political pressure