Core
EUR/USD (6E) — consolidating in low regime
EUR consolidation in 1.16-1.18 range through March 19 ECB meeting with cautious neutral bias - 85% of economists expect ECB unchanged at 2.00% while Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%
The Desk
Core
Crude Oil (CL) — breaking out in extreme regime
Rapidly shifting from bearish structural oversupply to tactically bullish geopolitical premium as March 1-8 Iran war forces repricing; sell-side beginning to acknowledge $100+ possible if Strait remains compromised but maintaining medium-term bearish on oversupply
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — Continuation of February AI spending concerns ($600-655B 2026 capex) combined…
Cautiously defensive given tariff uncertainty and February AI volatility hangover but acknowledging March seasonal tailwinds and volatility normalization could provide recovery catalyst if external pressures stabilize
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — Market consensus at 90% probability of March 19 rate cut appears well-priced…
Mildly bearish consolidation expected with defensive positioning ahead of March 19 BoE meeting as markets price 90% probability of 25bp rate cut to 3.5% following February inflation decline to 3.0%
Extended
Russell 2000 (RTY) — Bias review triggered after 4 consecutive BULLISH weeks with 2 consecutive…
Small-caps under pressure from geopolitical shocks and Fed uncertainty but retaining structural appeal from valuation discount and earnings growth outlook once volatility settles
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — consolidating in high regime
USD/JPY consolidation with slight bearish JPY bias on persistent rate differentials; Takaichi election victory seen constraining BoJ normalization through political pressure
Extended
Silver (SI) — 0.5 between 80 support and 90 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Most analysts targeting $80-95 consolidation near-term with longer-term forecasts extending to $100-150 by mid-2026 if supply deficit persists, though extreme volatility and Fed policy uncertainty create wide forecast dispersion
Extended
Copper (HG) — consolidating in normal regime
Copper rallied to record highs on supply concerns with elevated prices expected into 2026 but near-term consolidation likely as market digests extraordinary gains, rising LME inventories, China Q4 demand declining 8% YoY, and tariff policy uncertainty
Full Desk
30-Year Treasury (ZB) — -2.5 between 115.5 support and 117.5 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Treasury bonds experiencing failed rally breakdown with February advance exhausted structural bearish backdrop from Fed terminal rate near 3% remains intact bonds likely range 114-119 awaiting March FOMC clarity
Full Desk
Soybeans (ZS) — consolidating in normal regime
Neutral to cautiously bullish on South American weather concerns providing support but Supreme Court legal uncertainty and elevated US-Brazil spreads creating range-bound consolidation between 1000-1080
Full Desk
Wheat (ZW) — USDA March 2026 WASDE Report with winter wheat acreage estimates production…
Cautiously bullish on February-March rally from extreme October oversold levels with Arctic blast and early dormancy break providing genuine supply catalyst yet increasingly skeptical about sustainability above 620 given structural oversupply fundamentals expecting mean reversion once March WASDE cl
Full Desk
AUD/USD (6A) — RBA Governor Bullock warned March 3 of live chance of second consecutive rate…
Market consensus has shifted from November bearish expecting RBA cuts toward cautiously constructive recognizing February hike but not yet pricing high probability of March follow-through despite Governor Bullock March 3 warning