Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — Policy stalemate ahead of March 18 FOMC with Fed-BoJ differential unchanged at…
USD/JPY consolidation with slight bearish yen bias on persistent rate differentials; market expecting range-bound behavior ahead of FOMC
Extended
Extended
Russell 2000 (RTY) — -0.5 between 2450 support and 2520 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Small-caps under pressure from risk-off dynamics and Fed uncertainty but retaining fundamental appeal from earnings growth once volatility settles
Market Of The Week: ★S&P 500 (ES)★ February CPI release critical for Fed policy trajectory assessment amid dual…
S&P 500 (ES): Market underestimating duration of Iran conflict resolution required and stagflation policy paralysis while overestimating March seasonal pattern reliability given VIX 29.48 panic phase entry and 6791 technical breakdown confirming distribution not accumulation
Core
Gold (GC) — consolidating in high regime
Bullish medium-term with structural central bank support intact and Fed maintaining accommodative bias creating constructive backdrop for continuation toward $5300-5500 despite January profit-taking consolidation
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — consolidating in low regime
EUR consolidation in 1.16-1.18 range through March 19 ECB meeting with cautious neutral bias - 85% of economists expect ECB unchanged at 2.00% while Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%
Core
Crude Oil (CL) — breaking out in extreme regime
Rapidly shifting from bearish structural oversupply to tactically bullish geopolitical premium as March 1-8 Iran war forces repricing; sell-side beginning to acknowledge $100+ possible if Strait remains compromised but maintaining medium-term bearish on oversupply
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — Continuation of February AI spending concerns ($600-655B 2026 capex) combined…
Cautiously defensive given tariff uncertainty and February AI volatility hangover but acknowledging March seasonal tailwinds and volatility normalization could provide recovery catalyst if external pressures stabilize
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — Market consensus at 90% probability of March 19 rate cut appears well-priced…
Mildly bearish consolidation expected with defensive positioning ahead of March 19 BoE meeting as markets price 90% probability of 25bp rate cut to 3.5% following February inflation decline to 3.0%
Extended
Russell 2000 (RTY) — Bias review triggered after 4 consecutive BULLISH weeks with 2 consecutive…
Small-caps under pressure from geopolitical shocks and Fed uncertainty but retaining structural appeal from valuation discount and earnings growth outlook once volatility settles
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — consolidating in high regime
USD/JPY consolidation with slight bearish JPY bias on persistent rate differentials; Takaichi election victory seen constraining BoJ normalization through political pressure
Extended
Silver (SI) — 0.5 between 80 support and 90 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Most analysts targeting $80-95 consolidation near-term with longer-term forecasts extending to $100-150 by mid-2026 if supply deficit persists, though extreme volatility and Fed policy uncertainty create wide forecast dispersion
Extended
Copper (HG) — consolidating in normal regime
Copper rallied to record highs on supply concerns with elevated prices expected into 2026 but near-term consolidation likely as market digests extraordinary gains, rising LME inventories, China Q4 demand declining 8% YoY, and tariff policy uncertainty