Weekly Review
Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 11 Sept 2026
The yen finally gets its day, crude oil stages another geopolitical ambush, and 42.9% accuracy reminds the desk that conviction is a responsibility, not a decoration.
Weekly Review
The yen finally gets its day, crude oil stages another geopolitical ambush, and 42.9% accuracy reminds the desk that conviction is a responsibility, not a decoration.
USD/JPY (6J): The market is pricing only 63% probability of a BOJ rate hike at the September 17-18 meeting (Central Bank Watch) despite Ueda's explicit hawkish guidance on September 2 and Bloomberg's September 3 source confirmation that officials favor a quarter-point hike.
Core
EUR/USD consolidating in 1.1450-1.1700 range ahead of dense Eurozone data cluster this week — institutional year-end targets remain bullish at 1.20-1.25 but near-term direction hinges entirely on Sep 7-9 data outcomes and Sep FOMC expectations
Core
Market pricing a renewed geopolitical risk premium after the Sept 1 tanker attacks, with hedge funds aggressively adding bullish length and OPEC+ expected to pause production hikes post-September; the consensus is constructively bullish on WTI near $90-95 near-term absent a diplomatic surprise
Core
Cautiously neutral-to-slightly-bullish as ES consolidates in tight range near ATH resistance, awaiting PPI/CPI catalysts Sep 10-11 to determine whether the disinflation narrative holds or whether September seasonal weakness materializes
Core
Constructive but cautious — consensus acknowledges improving institutional positioning (COT +15,851 contracts, 72.2nd percentile) and stable macro backdrop with VIX at 14.32, while flagging September seasonal headwinds (-2.1% average for NDX per Motley Fool), consolidation below 50-day MA, and upcom
Core
Cautiously bullish with near-term consolidation; gold is stabilizing after the Aug pullback with analysts split on whether $4,300-$4,700 range resolves higher toward $4,800-$5,000 on September seasonal strength and dovish Fed rhetoric or remains range-bound awaiting the PPI/CPI catalyst next week
The yen finally gets its day, crude oil stages another geopolitical ambush, and 42.9% accuracy reminds the desk that conviction is a responsibility, not a decoration.
USD/JPY (6J): The market is pricing only 63% probability of a BOJ rate hike at the September 17-18 meeting (Central Bank Watch) despite Ueda's explicit hawkish guidance on September 2 and Bloomberg's September 3 source confirmation that officials favor a quarter-point hike.
Soybeans (ZS): The market is pricing in a continuation of the current demand-driven rally without adequately discounting the risk that September WASDE confirms Pro Farmer's higher 53.3 BPA yield estimate, which combined with extreme speculative positioning at 93.7th percentile and approaching season
Wheat detonates for 12%, precious metals choke on their own thesis, and the desk discovers that conviction 9 is just conviction 1 with better marketing.
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