Weekly Review
Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 17 Jul 2026
Wheat erupts 8.35% in a dust cloud of vindication, crude oil stages a 14% ambush, and the Nasdaq drops 4.4% while the desk polishes its NO CALL plaque.
Weekly Review
Wheat erupts 8.35% in a dust cloud of vindication, crude oil stages a 14% ambush, and the Nasdaq drops 4.4% while the desk polishes its NO CALL plaque.
Wheat (ZW):
Core
Tactically uncertain with market having completed mean reversion as current $71.41 WTI at pre-war February levels MINUS $2 per IEA July 10 report; structural oversupply consensus (IEA 4.7 mb/d surplus, EIA -1.2 mb/d demand decline) validates bearish fundamental picture yet current pricing suggests f
Core
Deeply divided with institutional year-end targets ranging from $4,900 (Goldman Sachs revised lower) to $6,300 (JPMorgan) maintaining structural bull case but near-term positioning increasingly bearish following July 1 Treasury yield shock, June ETF outflows $5.3B, and 27% correction from January pe
Core
EUR consolidation in 1.13-1.16 range through July 23 ECB meeting with neutral bias—markets efficiently pricing 70% July hike probability but 11-day catalyst vacuum creates range-bound conditions, year-end consensus targets 1.20-1.25 dependent on rate differential repricing
Core
Cautiously positioned ahead of late-July mega-cap tech earnings acknowledging technical consolidation and normalized VIX, but defensive given July 8 FOMC minutes hawkish tilt shifting July 28-29 meeting expectations and elevated valuations requiring execution
Core
Cautiously bullish on Q2 earnings strength and technical momentum above key moving averages, expecting Monday July 13 financial sector reports to validate 23.3% growth trajectory enabling grind toward 7,650-7,700 resistance, yet increasingly aware breadth deterioration and put/call 0.55 complacency
Wheat erupts 8.35% in a dust cloud of vindication, crude oil stages a 14% ambush, and the Nasdaq drops 4.4% while the desk polishes its NO CALL plaque.
Wheat (ZW):
Copper quietly delivers, wheat explodes while nobody's watching, and crude oil reminds the desk that the war premium has a pulse.
Copper (HG): Market may be overweighting June consolidation duration and China PMI weakness at 50.3 as demand destruction signals while underweighting that high-tech equipment PMI at 53.5 (significantly outpacing broader manufacturing) represents AI/data center demand validation not yet fully priced
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