EUR consolidation in 1.13-1.15 range through July 31 FOMC with neutral-to-mild-bearish bias after ECB July 23 delivered expected hold maintaining data-dependent stance, year-end consensus targets 1.12-1.18 range dependent on Fed easing timeline and ECB September action
This week's USD/JPY outlook: key drivers, volatility context, risk-opportunity assessment and the week ahead.
Russell 2000 (RTY): Market consensus positioning for July 28-29 FOMC hold at 75% probability may be underpricing hawkish surprise risk evidenced by 25% hike probability up from near-zero earlier in July and persistent 3.5% CPI with oil-driven inflation pressures, while desk recognizes acute vulnerab
Divided between oversold bounce buyers targeting 7,500-7,540 relief rally into FOMC and breakdown sellers expecting 7,319-7,200 continuation if Fed delivers hawkish surprise, with majority positioning cautiously ahead of July 29 binary outcome while acknowledging Q2 earnings validation creates funda
