Core
EUR/USD (6E) — Imminent dual central bank catalyst cluster (FOMC March 17-18, ECB March 18-19)…
EUR/USD consolidation in 1.14-1.17 range through dual central bank meetings with cautious neutral bias awaiting Fed and ECB policy guidance
FX
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — -1.2 between 1.32 support and 1.335 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Mildly bearish consolidation expected with defensive positioning ahead of March 19 BoE meeting as markets price 90% probability of 25bp rate cut to 3.5% following January inflation decline to 3.0%
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — Policy stalemate ahead of March 18 FOMC with Fed-BoJ differential unchanged at…
USD/JPY consolidation with slight bearish yen bias on persistent rate differentials; market expecting range-bound behavior ahead of FOMC
Full Desk
AUD/USD (6A) — Market appears to be under-appreciating binary volatility risk around March 17…
Market consensus rapidly shifted from bearish expecting RBA cuts to constructive bullish recognizing inflation-driven hawkish floor with 78% probability now pricing March 17 hike but positioning suggests uncertainty remains
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — consolidating in low regime
EUR consolidation in 1.16-1.18 range through March 19 ECB meeting with cautious neutral bias - 85% of economists expect ECB unchanged at 2.00% while Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — Market consensus at 90% probability of March 19 rate cut appears well-priced…
Mildly bearish consolidation expected with defensive positioning ahead of March 19 BoE meeting as markets price 90% probability of 25bp rate cut to 3.5% following February inflation decline to 3.0%
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — consolidating in high regime
USD/JPY consolidation with slight bearish JPY bias on persistent rate differentials; Takaichi election victory seen constraining BoJ normalization through political pressure
Full Desk
AUD/USD (6A) — RBA Governor Bullock warned March 3 of live chance of second consecutive rate…
Market consensus has shifted from November bearish expecting RBA cuts toward cautiously constructive recognizing February hike but not yet pricing high probability of March follow-through despite Governor Bullock March 3 warning
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — ECB Governing Council Rate Decision and Lagarde Press Conference - first major…
EUR consolidation in 1.17-1.19 range through March with cautious neutral bias - 85% of economists expect ECB unchanged through 2026 while Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — Bank of England March 19 rate decision with market expectations shifting toward…
Neutral to mildly bearish consolidation expected with defensive positioning ahead of March 19 BoE meeting as declining UK inflation to 3.0% supports easing expectations but 17-month persistence above target creates uncertainty
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — Bank of Japan March monetary policy meeting with quarterly outlook report -…
USD/JPY consolidation with slight bearish JPY bias on persistent rate differentials; Takaichi election victory seen constraining BOJ normalization through political pressure
Full Desk
AUD/USD (6A) — consolidating in normal regime
Shifting from bearish expecting RBA cuts toward cautiously bullish recognizing inflation-driven hawkish floor creates support but acknowledging 10% rally extension and China concerns tempering aggressive conviction