Weekly Review
Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 17 Apr 2026
Six from eight, crude oil's ceasefire collapse delivers -14.78%, and the S&P 500 breaks records while the Nasdaq watches from the NO CALL sidelines. Again.
Latest
Market Of The Week: ★S&P 500 (ES)★ FOMC two-day meeting April 28-29 with zero rate cut priced but markets…
S&P 500 (ES): Market may be underestimating persistence of extreme fear positioning creating sustained short-covering pressure toward 6900 resistance while overestimating earnings season execution certainty given forward PE 20-21x at 72nd percentile leaves minimal margin for disappointment on 13-14%
Core
Gold (GC) — consolidating in high regime
Mixed with institutional price targets remaining at $5000-5400 (Goldman Sachs, UBS, JP Morgan) but near-term uncertainty elevated following March CPI spike eliminating Fed rate cut expectations and dollar strength above DXY 100
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — Miss reset requirement triggered after 3 consecutive MISSED calls (April 10,…
Cautiously constructive acknowledging VIX compression and earnings season catalyst potential but defensive given March CPI shock shifting Fed expectations and elevated tech valuations requiring execution validation
Core
Crude Oil (CL) — consolidating after violent selloff in high regime
Tactically bearish on ceasefire-driven geopolitical premium fade but acknowledging fragility with April 22 expiration creating binary risk; structural oversupply forecasts (EIA $88/b Q4, Goldman $87 Q2, IEA 1.9 mb/d surplus) imply significant downside from current $97.50 once Hormuz fully normalizes
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — consolidating in normal regime
EUR/USD relief rally toward 1.18-1.20 supported by geopolitical de-escalation and ECB hawkish expectations for April 30, with near-term consolidation at 1.16-1.17 as ceasefire fragility creates caution
Extended
Copper (HG) — consolidating in normal regime
Copper consolidating from January 2026 record highs with elevated prices expected to persist into 2026 supported by supply deficit fundamentals, but near-term volatility likely as market balances Grasberg supply shock against China demand mixed signals from import weakness and LME inventory eight-ye
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — consolidating in high regime
Market expects USD/JPY consolidation around 158-160 range with mild bearish JPY bias on persistent rate differentials; 160 intervention threshold acknowledged but not priced as imminent action
Extended
Russell 2000 (RTY) — Market consensus focused on 'Great Rotation' narrative may be underpricing…
Small-caps in 'Great Rotation' momentum with IWM surging 12%+ and Q1 earnings season beginning mid-April to test 44.9% growth consensus, but near-term caution warranted on hot CPI removing Fed easing catalyst
Extended
Silver (SI) — 1.5 between 74 support and 78.5 resistance with 6/10 confidence
Market consensus fractured between structural bulls targeting $80-90 recovery by Q2 on intact deficit fundamentals and cautious neutrals awaiting April 29 Fed clarity, CoinCodex algorithm predicting +1.07% to $77.04 by April 16 suggests modest bullish lean emerging
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — Resetting after 2 consecutive MISSED graded calls per Rule 5 mandatory reset…
Neutral to mildly bullish consolidation expected with defensive positioning ahead of April 30 BoE meeting as markets price 90% HOLD probability but inflation repricing to 3.0-3.5% range creates policy uncertainty
Full Desk
Soybeans (ZS) — consolidating in normal regime
Mixed with bullish fundamental analysts citing WASDE validation and renewable diesel structural support offset by bearish macro analysts noting dollar strength and positioning profit-taking creating range-bound consolidation expectations