Weekly Review
Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 26 Jun 2026
Silver drops another 9% like clockwork, crude breaks below $70, and the Nasdaq crashes 4.4% while the desk stares at its shoes.
Latest
Market Of The Week: ★Silver (SI)★ -3 between 63.36 support and 68.3 resistance with 7/10 confidence
Silver (SI): Market treating June 17 Warsh FOMC hawkish pivot as standard hold event with incremental policy adjustment, while desk recognizes Warsh's removal of dovish easing bias and increased hawkish member projections creates asymmetric sustained dollar strength risk that consensus underprices —
Core
S&P 500 (ES) — Quarter-end rebalancing window culminates June 30 with estimated $165B global…
Divided between consolidation in 7,500-7,600 range absorbing quarter-end flows and modest pullback toward 7,448-7,400 testing 50-day MA support, with majority positioning cautiously ahead of June 30 mechanical rebalancing then turning optimistic for post-quarter-end relief rally
Core
Crude Oil (CL) — breaking down in high regime
Tactically bearish on geopolitical premium fade with structural oversupply consensus (IEA -1.1 mb/d demand contraction 2026, EIA Q4 $88 Brent, J.P. Morgan $60 Brent fair value) implying current $76.51 already at or below fundamental equilibrium as mean reversion 95%+ complete
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — Miss reset requirement triggered after 3 consecutive MISSED calls (June 19,…
Cautiously constructive acknowledging technical uptrend integrity and RISK-ON regime persistence but defensive given June 17 FOMC removal of easing bias shifting rate expectations and elevated valuations requiring Q2 earnings execution starting July
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — consolidating in low regime
EUR consolidation in 1.14-1.18 range through July with neutral bias after dual Fed-ECB June catalysts delivered (ECB hike June 11, Fed hawkish hold June 18-19), year-end consensus targets 1.20-1.22 dependent on Fed easing timeline and eurozone demand recovery
Extended
Copper (HG) — consolidating in high regime
Copper consolidating from January 2026 record highs with elevated prices expected but near-term volatility increasing as market balances structural supply deficit fundamentals (Grasberg offline, LME inventory tight at 361,600t) against China demand deceleration (PMI 51.80 down from 52.20) and manage
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — No material information edge in current environment—dual central bank meetings…
Neutral consolidation expected with defensive positioning following dual central bank meetings as markets digest Fed June 17 hawkish pivot removing dovish bias and BoE June 18 extended hold at 3.75% through 2026-2027, rate differential narrowing against Sterling creates fresh headwind
Extended
Russell 2000 (RTY) — Market consensus celebrating June 15 ATH and focusing on reconstitution flows…
Small-caps consolidating near June 15 all-time high at 3002 with market positioned for June 26 Russell reconstitution to provide technical support through forced passive rebalancing flows, though June 17 Fed hawkish pivot removing easing narrative creates fresh uncertainty
Full Desk
Soybeans (ZS) — breaking down in normal regime
Mixed with technical bears citing breakdown momentum and positioning liquidation offset by fundamental bulls noting June 11 WASDE declining stocks-to-use ratio and renewable diesel structural support creating range-bound consolidation expectations between 1100-1150 ahead of July 10 WASDE binary even
Full Desk
Platinum (PL) — MANDATORY NEUTRAL reset triggered after 6 consecutive MISSED calls exceeding…
Market violently rejecting WPIC structural deficit thesis with -42.8% decline from January peak prioritizing Fed Chair Warsh's June 16-17 hawkish pivot removing rate cut expectations and elevating real yields to 1.87% creating persistent macro headwinds overwhelming fundamental scarcity narrative de
Full Desk
30-Year Treasury (ZB) — -1 between 111.5 support and 113.5 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Market pricing Fed on hold at July 30-31 FOMC maintaining 3.50-3.75% range with <10% cut probability 2026 per Chase June 19 analysis; bonds consolidating 110-115 awaiting July 14 CPI clarity on whether Warsh's June 17 hawkish shift validated by data