Weekly Review
Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 8 May 2026
The desk wakes from its coma, NQ and ES break records (again), and eleven NO CALLs watch the world rally without them.
Latest
Market Of The Week: ★S&P 500 (ES)★ Market underestimating significance of 12 failed 7,300 breakout attempts since…
S&P 500 (ES): Market underestimating significance of 12 failed 7,300 breakout attempts since late April creating technical resistance fatigue while overestimating May 7 FOMC dovish surprise probability given Hammack's April 29 easing bias dissent - extreme put/call 0.46 complacency at all-time highs
Core
Gold (GC) — -1.5 between 4600 support and 4750 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Mixed with institutional price targets remaining at $5,000-5,400 but near-term positioning increasingly cautious following April 28-29 FOMC hawkish guidance eliminating near-term rate cut expectations and validating higher-for-longer trajectory
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — Nine consecutive NO CALL weeks triggering mandatory bias integrity protocols…
EUR consolidation in 1.16-1.18 range through May 8 Employment with neutral bias - market pricing Fed-ECB status quo with year-end EUR/USD consensus targets 1.18-1.20
Core
Crude Oil (CL) — -1.5 between 98 support and 106 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Tactically uncertain with market split between ceasefire optimists expecting mean reversion toward $85-90 and geopolitical hawks expecting sustained premium above $100; structural oversupply consensus (EIA $88 Q4, IEA 2.5 mb/d surplus 2H26) implies modest downside from current $102 but ceasefire bin
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — June 16-17 FOMC meeting decision with updated dot plot and first meeting…
Constructively bullish on technical breakout confirmation and Q1 earnings validation with strategists forecasting 7-12% 2026 gains, though acknowledging overbought technicals and complacent sentiment create near-term consolidation risk
Extended
Copper (HG) — 1.4 between 5.9 support and 6.13 resistance with 6/10 confidence
Copper consolidating from January 2026 record highs with elevated prices expected to persist but near-term volatility likely as market balances supply deficit fundamentals against China demand mixed signals and elevated inventory levels
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — Post-intervention consolidation at 156.5-157.5 USD/JPY after April 30 BoJ/MoF…
Market expects USD/JPY consolidation 156-158 range with mild bearish JPY bias on persistent rate differentials; intervention risk acknowledged but market already testing authorities' resolve by eroding half the April 30 gains
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — consolidating in normal regime
Neutral to mildly bearish consolidation expected with defensive positioning as BoE April 30 hawkish inflation warning on unavoidable Middle East energy pressures creates policy uncertainty 46 days before June 18 MPC meeting
Extended
Russell 2000 (RTY) — consolidating in normal regime
Small-caps consolidating near recent highs with market positioned for FOMC May 6-7 to provide rate path clarity, maintaining constructive outlook on Q1 earnings validation and eventual Fed easing supporting rate-sensitive small-caps
Extended
Silver (SI) — Structural deficit fundamentals (sixth consecutive year with 67M oz shortfall…
Market consensus fractured between structural bulls targeting $80-90 recovery on intact sixth-year deficit fundamentals and cautious neutrals awaiting May 12 CPI and June FOMC clarity, with CoinCodex algorithm predicting +1.96% to $76.89 by May 8 suggesting modest bullish lean emerging among technic
Full Desk
Wheat (ZW) — Resetting after 4 consecutive misses - thesis under review per Rule 5 mandatory…
Cautiously bullish on U.S. Plains drought damage supporting prices with wheat on track for third consecutive weekly gain yet skeptical about sustainability above 640 given global oversupply fundamentals and awaiting May 12 WASDE clarity