Weekly Review
Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 29 May 2026
Crude oil finally breaks the bears' drought, wheat breaks the bulls' hearts, and the Nasdaq quietly sets another record nobody asked about.
Latest
Market Of The Week: ★Silver (SI)★ Federal Reserve June 17-18 FOMC meeting expected to hold rates unchanged at…
Silver (SI): Market treating May 12-15 inflation surprise and May 15 -9% selloff as validation of secular bear trend invalidating structural deficit thesis, while desk recognizes this as Fed-driven cyclical consolidation within intact secular bull structure—sixth-year deficit with 59% industrial dem
Core
Crude Oil (CL) — Ceasefire-driven geopolitical premium collapse continues as Iran-U.S…
Tactically uncertain with market split between ceasefire optimists expecting mean reversion toward $85-90 and geopolitical hawks expecting sustained premium above $100; structural oversupply consensus (EIA $88 Q4, IEA 2.5 mb/d surplus 2H26, Goldman $87 forecast, OPEC May 13 demand downgrade) implies
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — Twelve consecutive NO CALL weeks exceeding 4-week Bias Review After threshold…
EUR consolidation in 1.14-1.18 range through June 5 ECB meeting with neutral bias—markets efficiently pricing three ECB hikes in 2026 with first potentially at June 5 meeting, year-end consensus targets 1.20-1.22 dependent on rate differential repricing
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — Market may be underweighting the significance of Manufacturing PMI surge to…
Constructively bullish on technical breakout confirmation above all-time highs and Q1 earnings validation with strategists forecasting 7-12% 2026 gains, though acknowledging near-term consolidation risk from overbought technicals and complacent sentiment requires tactical caution
Core
Gold (GC) — Mandatory thesis reset after 4 consecutive missed calls triggering Rule 5 Miss…
Mixed with institutional year-end targets remaining at $5,000-6,300 maintaining structural bull case but near-term uncertainty elevated following 16% correction and four consecutive weeks of failed directional calls creating tactical caution
Core
S&P 500 (ES) — consolidating in normal regime
Cautiously bullish on Q1 earnings strength and technical momentum but increasingly aware extreme put/call 0.49 complacency and 7,500-7,524 resistance persistence create asymmetric downside risk into June 16-17 FOMC catalyst with new Chair uncertainty
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — Post-early May intervention consolidation at 158-160 USD/JPY with market having…
Market expects USD/JPY consolidation 157-160 range with mild bearish JPY bias on persistent rate differentials; May 21 CPI miss to 1.5% seen as dovish but not catalyst for immediate BoJ policy shift with June 15-16 meeting as next inflection point
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — MANDATORY NEUTRAL reset after 4 consecutive MISSED graded calls exceeding…
Neutral to mildly bullish consolidation expected with defensive positioning as markets price BoE June 18 hold at 3.75% through rest of 2026 per Oxford Economics forecast following Middle East energy shock sustaining UK inflation at 3.3%
Extended
Copper (HG) — US Manufacturing PMI surge to 55.3 (strongest since May 2022, released within…
Copper consolidating from January 2026 record highs with elevated prices expected to persist supported by structural supply deficit fundamentals but near-term volatility likely as market balances US manufacturing acceleration against China demand mixed signals and positioning at 20-week highs creati
Extended
Russell 2000 (RTY) — MANDATORY MISS RESET: Three consecutive MISSED graded calls (May 8 NO CALL…
Small-caps consolidating near May 6 all-time high at 2,888.62 with market positioned for June 17-18 FOMC to provide rate path clarity, maintaining constructive outlook on Q1 earnings validation and benign volatility environment supporting equity grind
Full Desk
Soybeans (ZS) — May 12 WASDE revealed declining US stocks-to-use ratio despite 4.435B bushel…
Mixed with technical analysts noting consolidation fatigue after two-year highs offset by fundamental bulls citing WASDE declining stocks-to-use ratio and renewable diesel structural support creating range-bound expectations between 1175-1210 with directional resolution pending export sales confirma