Full Desk
Market digesting WPIC March 4 deficit revision with skepticism as price action prioritizes technical breakdown and profit-taking over structural scarcity narrative
Full Desk
Market pricing 92% hold at March 18-19 FOMC with only one cut expected for all of 2026; bonds consolidating 112-118 range awaiting FOMC clarity on terminal rate trajectory
Full Desk
Mixed with technical bulls focused on momentum and spec fund positioning while fundamental bears cite WASDE supply increases and Brazilian pricing advantages
Full Desk
Market consensus rapidly shifted from bearish expecting RBA cuts to constructive bullish recognizing inflation-driven hawkish floor with 78% probability now pricing March 17 hike but positioning suggests uncertainty remains
Weekly Review
Ten from fifteen, the S&P bearish call lands, and the Iran war turns crude into a one-way street while wheat gets winterkilled by reality.
S&P 500 (ES): Market underestimating duration of Iran conflict resolution required and stagflation policy paralysis while overestimating March seasonal pattern reliability given VIX 29.48 panic phase entry and 6791 technical breakdown confirming distribution not accumulation
Core
Bullish medium-term with structural central bank support intact and Fed maintaining accommodative bias creating constructive backdrop for continuation toward $5300-5500 despite January profit-taking consolidation
Core
EUR consolidation in 1.16-1.18 range through March 19 ECB meeting with cautious neutral bias - 85% of economists expect ECB unchanged at 2.00% while Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%
Core
Rapidly shifting from bearish structural oversupply to tactically bullish geopolitical premium as March 1-8 Iran war forces repricing; sell-side beginning to acknowledge $100+ possible if Strait remains compromised but maintaining medium-term bearish on oversupply
Core
Cautiously defensive given tariff uncertainty and February AI volatility hangover but acknowledging March seasonal tailwinds and volatility normalization could provide recovery catalyst if external pressures stabilize
Extended
Mildly bearish consolidation expected with defensive positioning ahead of March 19 BoE meeting as markets price 90% probability of 25bp rate cut to 3.5% following February inflation decline to 3.0%
Extended
Small-caps under pressure from geopolitical shocks and Fed uncertainty but retaining structural appeal from valuation discount and earnings growth outlook once volatility settles