Weekly Review
Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 17 Jul 2026
Wheat erupts 8.35% in a dust cloud of vindication, crude oil stages a 14% ambush, and the Nasdaq drops 4.4% while the desk polishes its NO CALL plaque.
Latest
Market Of The Week: ★Wheat (ZW)★ July 10 WASDE (2 days ago) confirmed catastrophic U.S. 2026/27 production at…
Wheat (ZW):
Core
Crude Oil (CL) — -1 between 65 support and 75 resistance with 3/10 confidence
Tactically uncertain with market having completed mean reversion as current $71.41 WTI at pre-war February levels MINUS $2 per IEA July 10 report; structural oversupply consensus (IEA 4.7 mb/d surplus, EIA -1.2 mb/d demand decline) validates bearish fundamental picture yet current pricing suggests f
Core
Gold (GC) — MANDATORY MISS RESET PROTOCOL: 11 consecutive MISSED graded calls…
Deeply divided with institutional year-end targets ranging from $4,900 (Goldman Sachs revised lower) to $6,300 (JPMorgan) maintaining structural bull case but near-term positioning increasingly bearish following July 1 Treasury yield shock, June ETF outflows $5.3B, and 27% correction from January pe
Core
EUR/USD (6E) — Eighteen consecutive NO CALL weeks with ECB July 23 catalyst 11 days away…
EUR consolidation in 1.13-1.16 range through July 23 ECB meeting with neutral bias—markets efficiently pricing 70% July hike probability but 11-day catalyst vacuum creates range-bound conditions, year-end consensus targets 1.20-1.25 dependent on rate differential repricing
Core
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) — July 28-29 FOMC meeting with rate announcement expected Tuesday July 29 at 2:00…
Cautiously positioned ahead of late-July mega-cap tech earnings acknowledging technical consolidation and normalized VIX, but defensive given July 8 FOMC minutes hawkish tilt shifting July 28-29 meeting expectations and elevated valuations requiring execution
Core
S&P 500 (ES) — Market may be underestimating significance of breadth deterioration (41.3%…
Cautiously bullish on Q2 earnings strength and technical momentum above key moving averages, expecting Monday July 13 financial sector reports to validate 23.3% growth trajectory enabling grind toward 7,650-7,700 resistance, yet increasingly aware breadth deterioration and put/call 0.55 complacency
Extended
USD/JPY (6J) — Policy paralysis 26 days after June 16 BoJ hike to 1.0% with USD/JPY trading at…
Market expects USD/JPY consolidation 160-162 range with mild bearish JPY bias on persistent rate differentials; BofA July 11 survey showing 4-year yen bearish extreme acknowledged but not priced as imminent reversal catalyst with next meaningful event July 30-31 BoJ meeting
Extended
Russell 2000 (RTY) — consolidating in normal regime
Small-caps consolidating near July 1 all-time high at 3,049.9 with market celebrating record $45B YTD inflows and 2026 small-cap rotation narrative, maintaining constructive outlook on Q2 earnings validation beginning mid-July
Extended
GBP/USD (6B) — consolidating in normal regime
Neutral consolidation expected with defensive positioning as markets price BoE July 30 extended hold at 3.75% through rest of 2026 and into 2027 per multiple sources, with BoE-Fed rate parity eliminating carry advantage that previously supported Sterling
Extended
Copper (HG) — -0.8 between 6 support and 6.4 resistance with 5/10 confidence
Copper consolidating from January 2026 record highs with elevated prices under pressure from ICSG's July 1 forecast reversal to surplus outlook for 2026-2027, market balancing structural supply constraints (Grasberg offline, sulfuric acid export ban) against demand uncertainty from China tepid PMI e
Extended
Silver (SI) — Eighth consecutive week of BEARISH bias now entering mandatory Bias Review…
Market consensus fractured between structural deficit bulls targeting $68-75 recovery on intact sixth-year deficit fundamentals per Silver Institute July 6 update and cautious bears projecting $55-58 test if July 14 CPI hot, with CoinCodex algorithm predicting -4.31% to $57.26 by July 17 suggesting