Extended
Copper consolidating from January 2026 record highs with elevated prices expected but near-term volatility increasing as market balances structural supply deficit fundamentals (Grasberg offline, LME inventory tight at 367,300t) against China demand mixed signals (PMI 50.0 barely expansionary), manag
Full Desk
Market consensus correctly prices genuine uncertainty ahead of tomorrow's RBA June 15-16 meeting with divided expectations between fourth hike and pause at 4.35% creating balanced two-way risk in current 0.7041 consolidation
Full Desk
Market pricing 97% hold probability at June 16-17 FOMC maintaining 3.50-3.75% range per CME FedWatch; bonds consolidating 110-115 awaiting Warsh's first decision with Forbes June 8 signaling potential removal of easing bias creating hawkish tilt to forward guidance expectations
Full Desk
Bearish following June 11 WASDE production downgrades with market viewing U.S. supply destruction as insufficient to overcome global stocks-to-use ratio at 45% and weak export demand expecting seasonal June-August harvest pressure to drive prices toward 550-575 support as structural oversupply narra
Full Desk
Market violently rejecting May 18 WPIC Q1 2026 report bullish full-year deficit upgrade (297 koz fourth consecutive year) with -17.1% decline since announcement, prioritizing Q1 surplus evidence (268 koz, first in six quarters from 18% YoY supply growth) over forward deficit projection suggesting fo
Full Desk
Mixed with technical bears citing breakdown momentum and positioning liquidation offset by fundamental bulls noting June 11 WASDE declining stocks-to-use ratio and renewable diesel structural support creating range-bound consolidation expectations between 1100-1150 ahead of July 10 WASDE binary even
Weekly Review
Three from seven, copper's revenge trade backfires spectacularly, and platinum crashes 9.6% while the desk watches from behind the sofa.
Copper (HG): Market experiencing severe technical breakdown on June 6-7 (3.83% decline breaking $6.30 support) despite unchanged structural fundamentals from Grasberg offline and sulfuric acid ban, creating fundamental-technical schism where desk at conviction floor of 5 acknowledges price action cu
Core
Mixed with institutional year-end targets remaining at $5,000-5,400 maintaining structural bull case but near-term positioning increasingly defensive following 6 consecutive weeks of analytical failures and Friday NFP-driven breakdown to 2026 lows creating elevated tactical caution
Core
Divided between RSI oversold bounce buyers targeting 7,500-7,550 relief rally and breakdown sellers expecting 7,300-7,200 continuation as June 16-17 FOMC binary outcome determines resolution with majority positioning defensively after June 5 worst-day-of-year selloff
Core
Defensively positioned after June 5 selloff eliminated 2026 rate-cut hopes, with strategists acknowledging technical damage but divided on whether this represents healthy consolidation or start of deeper correction given elevated valuations requiring growth justification
Core
Tactically uncertain with market split between OPEC+ optimists expecting production increase supporting mean reversion toward $85-88 and deficit hawks expecting freeze validating $92-95 range; crowd positioning bearish (Polymarket 64% below $85 probability) yet structural oversupply consensus (EIA d