Extended
Small-caps pulling back from May 6 all-time high at 2,888.62 but maintaining constructive longer-term view on Q1 earnings and eventual Fed easing supporting small-cap rotation narrative
Extended
Neutral consolidation expected with defensive positioning as markets digest conflicting signals from hot US inflation repricing Fed hawkish while UK growth downgrades to 0.8% create stagflationary concerns 32 days before June 18 BoE meeting
Extended
Copper consolidating from January 2026 record highs with elevated prices expected to persist but near-term volatility increasing as market balances structural supply deficit fundamentals against technical breakdown and demand uncertainty
Full Desk
Cautiously bullish on May 12 WASDE production downgrades confirming most severe U.S. wheat shortfall since 1972 yet increasingly skeptical about sustainability above 650 given 7.6% pullback from highs, May 8 frost fears proving unfounded, and global stocks at 34.52% stocks-to-use ratio suggesting st
Full Desk
Market consensus shifted from aggressive bullish expecting sustained RBA tightening to cautious neutral recognizing May 6 hike created conflicting narrative with Bullock economic pain warning tempering conviction for sustained policy divergence
Full Desk
Market pricing Fed on extended hold through mid-2026 with terminal rate near 3% after yesterday's April CPI 0.6% MoM inflation shock; bonds consolidating 110-115 range awaiting May employment data and June FOMC clarity on whether energy-driven inflation spike represents trend reversal or transitory
Full Desk
Market consolidating above critical $2,000 psychological support with mixed conviction ahead of May 18 WPIC quarterly binary catalyst that could validate or challenge March 4 fourth consecutive deficit revision, as elevated real yields and retail crowding create tactical caution despite structural s
Full Desk
Mixed with technical bulls citing intact uptrend and renewable diesel structural support offset by sentiment bears noting exhaustion after two-year highs and fundamental analysts concerned about Brazilian export competitiveness creating consolidation expectations
Weekly Review
Nine directional calls, zero grades, one very hot CPI print, and gold's positioning thesis walks straight into an inflation buzzsaw.
Gold (GC): Market appears to underestimate significance of Managed Money positioning collapse to RECORD LOWS as of May 6 creating sub-15th percentile extreme that historically precedes mean reversion rallies, while widely-discussed Q1 central bank demand holding at 244t (+3% YoY) validates structura
Core
Cautiously bullish on Q1 earnings strength and NFP resilience but increasingly aware extreme RSI 77.65 overbought and put/call 0.53 complacency create asymmetric downside risk into May 12 CPI catalyst with 7,428-7,500 resistance zone formidable
Core
Tactically uncertain with market split between ceasefire optimists expecting mean reversion toward $85-90 and geopolitical hawks expecting sustained premium above $100; structural oversupply consensus (EIA $88 Q4, IEA 2.5 mb/d surplus 2H26, Goldman $87 forecast) implies modest downside from current