Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 17 Apr 2026

The ceasefire that changed everything two weeks ago changed everything again this week, and this time the desk was on the right side of almost all of it. Six of eight directional calls correct, a 75% hit rate, and a pair of individual market moves so large they rewrite the narrative of 2026's second quarter. The S&P 500 surged 4.52% as Q1 earnings season opened with a roar and Iran ceasefire optimism pushed Wall Street to record highs. Crude oil collapsed another 14.78% as the two-week ceasefire timeline approached its April 22 expiration with actual progress toward permanence. Silver exploded 6.64% higher. The Russell 2000 ripped 5.30%. Copper tacked on another 3.71%. The Aussie dollar climbed 1.71%. When the desk commits with conviction, it tends to be right. This week, it committed on eight markets and nailed six of them.

The two misses are worth examining with clear eyes. Wheat, called BEARISH at 5/10, rallied 4.73% in one of those agricultural reversals that make you question whether weather models or WASDE reports actually matter. And Treasury bonds, the desk's longest-running BEARISH conviction that has been correct for what felt like an eternity, finally broke the streak with a modest 0.52% gain against a bearish call. After seven consecutive correct bearish weeks on ZB, the desk's bond thesis finally ran into a reality where collapsing oil prices and ceasefire relief were actually good for duration. Seven from seven is a streak. Seven from eight is still pretty good.

But the elephant in the room has tusks the size of the Nasdaq 100's weekly candle. NQ surged 6.17% while the desk issued NO CALL. I have now called this out four times in 2026. Four times. A 6% move on the largest tech index in the world is not background noise. It is the kind of thing a prediction desk exists to catch. CNBC reported on April 16 that the stock market was hitting records despite the Iran war, and FactSet confirmed Q1 earnings growth could reach 19%, the highest since Q4 2021. The desk's miss-streak reset rules mandated neutral on NQ, and the procedural logic is sound. But when your procedure produces silence on a 6% rally, the procedure deserves a conversation.

Eight directional calls this week, with six landing on the right side. The other seven markets got the NO CALL treatment. A 75% directional hit rate continues the strong recent run, following last week's perfect six-for-six. The average confidence of 6.25 across those eight calls reflects measured conviction rather than reckless aggression, and the distribution was clean: the four highest-conviction calls at 7/10 (ES, HG, RTY, 6A) all delivered. The two misses came from the lowest-conviction calls at 5/10 (ZB and ZW), which is exactly how calibration should work. When your high-confidence calls outperform your low-confidence ones, the system is telling you something useful about its own reliability.

The NO CALL count of seven is notable. Gold, the Nasdaq, the euro, sterling, the yen, soybeans, and platinum all sat on the sideline, and the first three of those produced moves large enough to matter (NQ +6.17%, GC +1.66%, 6E +0.98%). The desk is still struggling with the fundamental tension between procedural discipline and opportunity cost. Missing a 6% Nasdaq rally three weeks running (4.83%, then 6.17%) because the miss-streak rules mandate neutral is starting to feel less like discipline and more like dogma.

The rolling twelve-week figure sits at 58.6% across 111 directional calls, with 69 no-call abstentions. This week's 75% helps nudge the number upward, and we are finally seeing the December horror show begin to age out of the trailing window. The engagement rate shows the desk calling direction on roughly 62% of market-weeks, which has declined from the 70%+ pace of February as the wartime environment made the agents more cautious. If the desk strings together another two weeks above 65%, we should finally crack through the 60% ceiling that has been its ceiling since the Iran conflict began. The metals and commodity complex has been the desk's profit engine, while FX remains the persistent drag.

The Sentiment agent had its best week of 2026, and it was not particularly close. Its contrarian framework, identifying extreme fear positioning as a bullish setup across equities, produced correct calls on ES (+4.52%), RTY (+5.30%), and supported the broader risk-on narrative that lifted SI, HG, and 6A. The agent that spent most of February and March being too cautious on metals and offering no useful signal on the Nasdaq selloff has finally found its footing in the post-ceasefire regime. The Fundamental agent continued its strong commodity work, driving correct calls on crude oil's bearish mean-reversion thesis and copper's Grasberg supply deficit, earning its keep on the two markets where supply-demand analysis matters most.

The Economic agent was the week's weakest performer, flagging the March CPI spike to 3.3% as a headwind for equities and supporting the bearish bond call that missed. When the market decides to look past inflation because the geopolitical relief trade is stronger, the Economic agent's rate-differential frameworks become noise rather than signal. The wheat miss was a collective failure, with the Fundamental agent's bearish WASDE thesis overwhelming the Sentiment agent's mild bullish contrarian signal that turned out to be closer to the truth.

The April 22 Iran ceasefire expiration date is Monday, making it the single most important binary event of the week. If the ceasefire extends to a permanent agreement, crude oil's decline likely accelerates toward Goldman's $87 target, equities consolidate at record highs, and the geopolitical premium that has dominated markets since February 28 formally expires. If it collapses, oil reverses violently toward $100+ and everything that rallied this week gives it back. Q1 earnings season intensifies with major tech names reporting, and whether the 19% growth rate FactSet projected holds or disappoints will determine whether the S&P's 7165 close was the start of something or the peak. The April 29-30 FOMC and BoE meetings loom at month-end, and both could shift the interest rate narrative materially. The desk will have its Sunday views. Given the ceasefire deadline arriving literally on Monday's open, I expect some serious conviction one way or the other.