Market pricing 75% hold probability at July 28-29 FOMC maintaining 3.50-3.75% range with 25% hike probability per Polymarket $91.9M volume; bonds consolidating 109-111 range awaiting FOMC clarity on whether June CPI 3.5% dovish surprise shifts forward guidance from June 17 hawkish dot plot with stru
Soybeans institutional positioning: COT data, sentiment analysis and smart money flow assessment.
This week's USD/JPY outlook: key drivers, volatility context, risk-opportunity assessment and the week ahead.
Russell 2000 (RTY): Market consensus positioning for July 28-29 FOMC hold at 75% probability may be underpricing hawkish surprise risk evidenced by 25% hike probability up from near-zero earlier in July and persistent 3.5% CPI with oil-driven inflation pressures, while desk recognizes acute vulnerab
Divided between oversold bounce buyers targeting 7,500-7,540 relief rally into FOMC and breakdown sellers expecting 7,319-7,200 continuation if Fed delivers hawkish surprise, with majority positioning cautiously ahead of July 29 binary outcome while acknowledging Q2 earnings validation creates funda
