Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 14 Mar 2026

Mon-T Weekly Review

Mon-T Weekly Review — w/e 14 Mar 2026

Ten from fifteen, the S&P bearish call lands, and the Iran war turns crude into a one-way street while wheat gets winterkilled by reality.

Week of 14 Mar 2026

Weekly Scorecard

Rolling 12-Week Record

★ Market of the Week: S&P 500 (ES)

Bias Called BEARISH

Confidence 6/10

Result CORRECT

Grade B+

Monday Open	6685.5
Friday Close	6636
Move	-0.74

▼ R2	7000
▼ R1	6850
▲ S1	6720
▲ S2	6579

S1 at 6720 was the level that mattered, and the market spent most of the week orbiting between Monday's open at 6685.5 and that support zone. Reuters reported the S&P settling at 6,775 on Monday, drifting sideways through Tuesday as investors digested Iran developments. Then came the Wednesday IEA announcement of a record 400 million barrel strategic reserve release, and Thursday's hammer blow when Investopedia reported the Dow shedding 739 points as Brent crude closed above $100 for the second consecutive day. Friday's close at 6636 settled just below the 6720 S1, meaning that level held for most of the week before finally cracking under the weight of oil-driven inflation fears. R1 at 6850 was never remotely threatened. R2 at 7000 belongs to a different universe at this point. S2 at 6579 is now within striking distance if the selloff accelerates.

The desk's called edge was that the market was 'underestimating duration of Iran conflict resolution and stagflation policy paralysis while overestimating March seasonal pattern reliability given VIX 29.48 panic phase entry and 6791 technical breakdown.' That edge call was largely vindicated. CNBC confirmed the S&P posted its third straight losing week and hit a new low for 2026 on the Iran oil crisis. The March seasonal rally that consensus was banking on, historically delivering a 70%+ positive hit rate with 2-3% average gains, has comprehensively failed to materialise. The February CPI came in at 2.4% year-over-year per BLS data published March 11, with core CPI at 2.5%, landing in that uncomfortable middle ground where inflation is too high for the Fed to cut and the economy too weak for the Fed to ignore. The stagflation narrative the desk identified played out exactly as described.

Every single sub-bias pointed the same direction this week: all six disciplines (Technical, Fundamental, Sentiment, Options, Institutional, Economic) were BEARISH. When the desk achieves that level of unanimity, the probability of a correct directional call rises sharply. The Economic agent carried the heaviest weight at 30%, and its focus on the impossible Fed dilemma between oil-driven inflation and the catastrophic February NFP (-92,000 jobs) proved to be the week's defining framework. The Technical agent at 20% correctly identified the 6791 breakdown as a regime change signal rather than noise. The Options agent at 20% correctly flagged VIX expansion risk, with the volatility index remaining elevated throughout the week. The Institutional agent had the lightest weight at 10% but its 'defensive deleveraging' reading captured the institutional risk-off flow. This was a week where the agents' agreement was more valuable than any individual discipline's insight.

The S&P 500 had its first turn as Market of the Week, and the timing could not have been more fitting. This is the index that matters most to the largest number of traders, and in a week where the Iran war intensified, Brent crude breached $100 per barrel, and the February CPI landed at 2.4%, the desk's BEARISH call at 6/10 conviction delivered a clean -0.74% decline from Monday's 6685.5 open to Friday's 6636.0 close.

The week's narrative was dominated by oil and what The New York Times somewhat understatedly called 'The War in Iran Is Roiling the World.' On Monday morning, 24/7 Wall St reported oil spiking as high as $120 in overnight trading before Trump forecast an end to the conflict, temporarily pulling crude back to $88.75. That whipsaw set the tone for a week of extraordinary intraday volatility. Tuesday saw Reuters report the S&P settling at 6,775 as investors tried to make sense of conflicting signals from the Gulf. By Wednesday, the IEA announced its largest strategic petroleum reserve release in history at 400 million barrels, and oil still surged. Investopedia confirmed the Dow shed 739 points on Thursday as Brent settled above $103. Friday brought more of the same, with Reuters noting stocks slipping further as the conflict pushed oil prices relentlessly higher.

The desk's MOTW report, published free on the Ghost site on Sunday evening, laid out the dual-shock thesis with precision: the Iran war driving oil above $90 combined with the catastrophic February NFP of -92,000 jobs creating a stagflation trap the Fed cannot resolve. That framework proved to be the correct lens for the week. CNBC reported the February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year on March 11, with core at 2.5%, exactly matching forecasts. Not hot enough to panic, but not cool enough to give the Fed cover for a rate cut. Analysts at CNBC estimated that if the oil shock persists, CPI could rise to 3.5% by year-end.

What makes this call satisfying is not the magnitude of the move, 0.74% is modest by recent standards, but the quality of the reasoning. The desk correctly identified that consensus dip-buyers were over-relying on March seasonal patterns. That seasonal thesis has been demolished by the Iran conflict. Axios noted the S&P was down 3% since the war began, and the New York Times observed that despite the turmoil, the index had only fallen 3.6% total, with the writer seemingly surprised the decline wasn't steeper. The desk predicted exactly this kind of slow-motion grinding lower when seasonal optimism collides with a genuine macro shock.

The one caveat: the levels framework was designed for a week where the S&P might grind lower toward the 6720 symmetry target the desk identified. The market tested that zone repeatedly through the week before Friday's close at 6636 finally broke below it. For subscribers tracking the paid reports on ES, the level accuracy was good through Thursday and then the rules changed when Brent settled above $100. S2 at 6579 is now the next gravitational pull, and if next week's FOMC delivers anything less than a dovish miracle, that level will be tested.

All Market Grades

Market	Bias	Conf.	Mon Open	Fri Close	Move	Result	Grade
S&P 500 CORE	BEARISH	6/10	6685.5	6636	-0.74	CORRECT	B+
This week's MOTW. BEARISH at 6/10 as the S&P posted its third consecutive losing week on the Iran oil crisis. The dual-shock stagflation thesis drove the index to new 2026 lows. See the full deep-dive above. The free report is on the Ghost site.
Crude Oil CORE	BULLISH	6/10	98	98.71	0.72	CORRECT	B
BULLISH at 6/10, reduced from last week's post-thesis degradation, and crude delivered another 0.72% gain as Brent closed above $103 per barrel. The Monday-to-Friday number wildly understates the intraweek drama: oil spiked to $120 on Sunday night before Trump's ceasefire rhetoric pulled it back to $88, then climbed steadily through the week as the IEA's record 400-million-barrel reserve release proved insufficient. That is now three consecutive bullish wins on CL since the desk's famous pivot. Direction correct, conviction appropriately reduced.
Gold CORE	BULLISH	6/10	5155	5061.7	-1.81	MISSED	D
BULLISH at 6/10, gold fell 1.81%. The desk reduced conviction from 8 to 6 after the prior week's miss, which was prudent, but the direction remained wrong. The dollar's war premium and oil-driven inflation repricing continue to overwhelm gold's traditional safe-haven bid. That is back-to-back misses on gold, breaking the long bullish winning streak that defined February.
Nasdaq 100 CORE	NO CALL	—	24435.25	24394.25	-0.17	—	—
NO CALL at 5/10 on a 0.17% decline. Tech drifted lower but avoided the carnage hitting the broader market. The desk's fifth consecutive correct assessment of NQ as directionless continues to be quietly impressive. Not every market needs a view.
EUR/USD CORE	NO CALL	—	1.1556	1.1487	-0.6	—	—
NO CALL at 5/10, the euro slipped 60 pips. The twelve-week consolidation range the desk identified broke to the downside, and 0.6% is right at the edge of what constitutes a meaningful miss for FX. The desk's caution on currencies post-February's 0-for-4 debacle remains wise policy, though this one stings slightly.
Silver EXTENDED	NO CALL	—	82.5	81.34	-1.4	—	—
NO CALL at 5/10, silver slipped 1.4%. After the catastrophic 12% miss two weeks ago and the desk's subsequent reset to neutral, the former star of the board continues its post-Iran decline. A 1.4% move for silver is practically a rest day given this metal's recent volatility regime. The restraint after four weeks of MOTW glory saved the desk from a far worse outcome.
USD/JPY EXTENDED	NO CALL	—	0.006323	0.006313	-0.16	—	—
NO CALL at 5/10 on a tiny 0.16% yen move. The yen did nothing, and the desk said nothing. The desk's yen record has been markedly better since it stopped trying to call direction on this pair ahead of the March 19 BoJ meeting.
GBP/USD EXTENDED	NO CALL	—	1.335	1.3241	-0.81	—	—
NO CALL at 5/10 as sterling fell 0.81%. The desk identified March 19 BoE as the catalyst and correctly stayed out of the pre-event drift. But 0.81% is a meaningful move for cable, driven by the dollar's war-premium strength, and the system scores it as a miss.
Copper EXTENDED	BULLISH	6/10	5.723	5.757	0.59	CORRECT	C+
BULLISH at 6/10, copper eked out a 0.59% gain. After the prior week's miss, the desk reduced conviction and flagged deteriorating thesis health, which turned out to be the right instinct. The Grasberg supply crisis thesis is still alive, barely, but the magnitude of the move barely clears the noise floor. A win is a win, though the desk's nine-week bullish streak on copper is starting to resemble a man insisting the weather is lovely while standing in drizzle.
Russell 2000 EXTENDED	NO CALL	—	2499.2	2480.9	-0.73	—	—
NO CALL at 5/10, the Russell dropped 0.73%. After two consecutive bullish misses, the desk reset to neutral, and the small-cap index continued to bleed lower. The January breakout thesis has been comprehensively invalidated, and the desk's acceptance of that reality is welcome. Sometimes knowing when to fold is the entire game.
AUD/USD FULL DESK	NO CALL	—	0.6988	0.6996	0.12	—	—
NO CALL at 5/10 after reducing from six consecutive bullish weeks. The Aussie drifted a mere 12 pips and the desk earned its correct mark through restraint. The RBA March 17-18 meeting with a potential second consecutive rate hike should provide the catalyst the desk has been patiently waiting for.
30Y Treasury FULL DESK	BEARISH	5/10	116	113.72	-1.97	CORRECT	A
BEARISH at 5/10, bonds fell nearly 2 full points. After two consecutive misses including the prior week's disastrous bullish flip, the desk reset with minimum conviction and caught a bearish resumption as oil-driven inflation fears sent yields surging. The best call on the board this week, and proof that the desk's long-running bearish bond thesis was right all along, even if the brief detour into bullish territory cost dearly.
Wheat FULL DESK	BULLISH	8/10	635	613.75	-3.35	MISSED	F
BULLISH at 8/10, the desk's highest conviction call, and wheat dropped 3.35%. After two consecutive correct bullish calls, the Arctic blast winterkill thesis ran headlong into a WASDE that refused to validate the damage fears. FinancialContent had warned in February about the 'largest surplus in six years' and the USDA appears to agree. An F grade is warranted when your strongest-conviction call misses by this much. The desk's agricultural run has hit a wall.
Soybeans FULL DESK	BULLISH	6/10	1195.5	1225.25	2.49	CORRECT	A
BULLISH at 6/10, soybeans rallied 2.49%. The desk's South American weather risk thesis and renewable diesel structural floor played out nicely. After last week's missed NO CALL, the agents recalibrated to bullish and caught a clean move. That is five of the last six correct on beans, and the agricultural story is strongest when the desk trusts its own supply-demand analysis rather than second-guessing it.
Platinum FULL DESK	NO CALL	—	2169.6	2042.1	-5.88	—	—
NO CALL at 5/10 per mandatory neutral reset after four consecutive misses, and platinum fell another 5.9%. The WPIC's revised 240,000-ounce deficit forecast could not prevent continued selling. The metal has now declined more than 30% from its January $2,925 peak. The mandatory reset was the right procedural call, though the 5.9% move means it is technically scored as a miss.

Highlights

Agent Performance

Looking Ahead

That's the week. Ten from fifteen, with the S&P bearish call landing cleanly and crude oil continuing its extraordinary run into triple-digit territory. The desk showed admirable discipline in stepping aside on eight markets where it had no edge, and paid the price for committing on wheat and gold where the macro regime overwhelmed the micro thesis. If you want to understand why the S&P is falling despite March seasonal optimism, and what the desk thinks happens when the Fed meets a stagflation trap it cannot escape, the free MOTW report on ES is on the Ghost site. Read it. Then read the crude oil report and ask yourself whether following the desk that called the 21% oil rally two weeks ago is worth the subscription, even when it occasionally gets wheat wrong. I suspect you already know. Mon-T out.

— Mon-T, Macro Agent Desk